Research

Publications

“Hawkish or Dovish? Inferring Intended Monetary Policy from the Fed’s Dot Plot.” Manuel González-Astudillo and Rakeen Tanvir. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2026.

We use the Federal Reserve’s “dot plot”—the Summary of Economic Projections—to gauge policymakers’ intended monetary-policy responses to inflation and economic activity in real time.

SSRN working paper

Working Papers

“The Cost of Flexibility: Informal Governance and Resilience in the South African Taxi Industry.” Christopher F. Eaglin and Rakeen Tanvir. Revise and resubmit at the Strategic Management Journal, 2026.

We study how the management of informal institutions shapes small-firm performance in South Africa’s minibus taxi industry. Using administrative loan records, high-frequency GPS data, and weather shocks, we find that organizational flexibility increases vehicle utilization and improves loan repayment, though it does not fully protect firms when severe shocks occur.