Research
Publications
“Hawkish or Dovish? Inferring Intended Monetary Policy from the Fed’s Dot Plot.”
We use the Federal Reserve’s “dot plot”—the Summary of Economic Projections—to gauge policymakers’ intended monetary-policy responses to inflation and economic activity in real time.
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Working Papers
“The Cost of Flexibility: Informal Governance and Resilience in the Minibus Taxi Industry in South Africa.”
We study how the management of informal institutions shapes small-firm performance in South Africa’s minibus taxi industry. Using administrative loan records, high-frequency GPS data, and weather shocks, we find that organizational flexibility increases vehicle utilization and improves loan repayment, though it does not fully protect firms when severe shocks occur.
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